India to have extra aged individuals later this century as fertility falls, age construction shifts: Moody’s

India is more likely to have a a lot older inhabitants later this century, because the nation’s age construction is starting to shift and fertility has fallen “under alternative,” Moody’s Scores mentioned on Tuesday (September 29, 2026).

Moody’s mentioned inhabitants development has lengthy been a tailwind for financial development and creditworthiness, however falling fertility is now altering that image.

Fewer employees will restrict productive capability, whereas fewer households and customers will weaken demand. Consequently, international locations should rely extra on productiveness to maintain development.

Moody’s mentioned the worldwide fertility charge had declined from 4.9 kids per lady in 1950 to about 2.2 in the present day, solely barely above the alternative charge of two.1.

“What makes this episode significantly important is that lots of the world’s largest economies are ageing on the identical time. Actually, greater than 70% of the world’s inhabitants now lives in international locations with fertility charges at or under alternative degree,” Moody’s mentioned in a report on international demographics.

It mentioned fertility charges throughout a lot of Latin America have been now corresponding to these of Europe and Japan, whereas a number of East Asian international locations had a few of the lowest fertility charges ever recorded.

Japan has probably the most top-heavy inhabitants construction, with almost 30% of its inhabitants over 65 and about 11% below 15.

South Korea is shut behind, whereas China is transferring quickly in the identical path. Rising markets, together with Brazil, India, Thailand and Türkiye, are additionally progressing alongside the identical path.

“Though India’s inhabitants stays comparatively younger, fertility has already fallen under alternative and the nation’s age construction is starting to shift, setting the stage for a a lot older inhabitants later this century,” Moody’s mentioned.

Declining fertility in the end reshapes age constructions in addition to inhabitants development, it mentioned. Nations experiencing the steepest fertility declines in the present day may even age most quickly within the coming many years.