Our high tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Is aware of, supplies his evaluation and betting perception forward of the weekend’s Premier League motion.
Brentford vs Chelsea, Friday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Chelsea have been susceptible to precisely the kind of bodily, second-ball and set-piece soccer Brentford specialize in. There’s a softness about them which was uncovered by Hull Metropolis, who scored from a nook when Emi Martinez didn’t deal cleanly with a supply. Brentford might be licking their lips and getting their knives and forks prepared for a set-piece feast.
Out of the 17 ever-present Premier League groups for the reason that begin of final season, Chelsea have conceded the second most objectives from set-pieces at 0.5 per recreation and the Bees have hit them through this technique in earlier fixtures, amassing a per-game common of 0.73 for anticipated objectives from set-pieces from the previous three conferences.
Chelsea look there for the taking with Brentford on supply at Evens within the draw no wager market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 12.30pm
There’s a putting quantity of proof pointing in direction of a low-scoring recreation.
Tottenham’s issues in entrance of purpose are effectively documented – zero scored in 4 Premier League matches to a backdrop of simply 0.95 anticipated objectives per recreation. Roberto De Zerbi’s groups averaged 1.92 objectives scored per recreation at Brighton and Marseille, so to common simply 0.73 per recreation since taking the Spurs job showcases a worrying trait for the setting on the membership. There appears a “psychological block” holding this soccer membership again.
Villa have scored only one purpose themselves this season within the Premier League. Each groups have real attacking-process issues, however for various causes. Tottenham have possession and territory with out sufficient penetration whereas Aston Villa are struggling to generate a lot shot quantity in any respect.
Below 2.5 objectives at 10/11 with Sky Guess seems too good to show down.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Below 2.5 objectives (10/11 with Sky Guess)
Brighton vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm
Fabian Hurzeler has but to style victory over Mikel Arteta throughout 5 conferences however his Brighton crew have actually bloodied the nostril of the champions. In video games which have produced loads of needle – even between the managers – Brighton have gained 4 of the 5 anticipated objectives battles which factors in direction of this being a tough encounter for the guests regardless of their excellent begin to the season.
I would be cautious of taking the 7/10 with Sky Guess for an away win, with the double likelihood for Brighton at 11/10 rather more interesting.
Olivier Boscagli needs to be lining up towards Bukayo Saka, who seems again to his harmful greatest with the ball. The winger has drawn 13 fouls in three Premier League video games, with three of these fouls resulting in a reserving for the opponent. Boscagli is 5/4 with Sky Guess to make two or extra fouls and is 4/1 to be carded – a value given additional edge by his two earlier playing cards in two video games with Arsenal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Everton vs Ipswich City, Saturday 3pm
Nightmare. Absolute nightmare.
We have been on Leif Davis to attain or help the week earlier than final, then determined to not observe him into the Crystal Palace recreation final weekend – and, in fact, he went and did each. That is betting for you. It makes us resilient.
I am glad to return in.
Leif Davis celebrates with team-mates after heading Ipswich in entrance towards Crystal Palace
Davis is enjoying a job that makes him way over your conventional left-back. He’s getting extraordinarily superior for Ipswich, continually pushing into the ultimate third and changing into a real attacking outlet. His two objectives and an help within the opening 4 Premier League video games underline simply how concerned he’s.
There may be additionally a beautiful little momentum angle right here. If we embody pre-season, Davis has scored 4 instances in his final seven video games. That’s some output from a participant ranging from left-back.
The shot-on-target value is the fascinating bit. The 100/30 with Sky Guess feels massive for a participant whose positioning means he’s commonly getting himself into attacking areas.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Leif Davis +1 shot heading in the right direction (100/30 with Sky Guess)
Newcastle United vs Hull Metropolis, Saturday 3pm
There’s something a couple of crew getting completely battered that makes me concerned with opposing them of their subsequent recreation. It’s not simply the bodily exertion of chasing shadows for 90 minutes – there’s a psychological hangover that may linger.
Newcastle actually bought a beating at Leeds. They have been 4-0 down earlier than ultimately dropping 4-1, with Matthias Jaissle admitting afterwards that the end result was “tough to digest” and that his younger facet couldn’t match Leeds’ physicality.
When groups conceding 4 or extra objectives in a Premier League recreation, excluding matches towards Arsenal, Manchester Metropolis and Liverpool, their file of their subsequent recreation is horrible. Only one win from the final 15, alongside 5 attracts and 9 defeats.
That makes Hull or draw at 11/8 with Sky Guess fascinating.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry Metropolis, Saturday 5.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
James McAtee is a unbelievable wager right here to be carded.
To place the case merely: a participant who’s enjoying in a Premier League midfield – essentially the most bodily and duel-heavy main league in Europe – that has made seven fouls in his final two video games, selecting up a yellow card in each, shouldn’t be 13/2 with Sky Guess to be carded once more. It is a basic case of a positional change with a participant not being factored into the market but as McAtee is doing a advantageous job of changing Elliott Anderson’s hustle and bustle within the Forest midfield. Huge value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: James McAtee to be carded (13/2 with Sky Guess)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Narrative is all the time value listening to in soccer betting. Andoni Iraola returning to Bournemouth with Liverpool seems like a kind of events the place the emotional temperature on the Vitality Stadium might be turned up a couple of levels.
Iraola spent three seasons on the south coast, taking Bournemouth to their highest-ever Premier League end earlier than transferring to Anfield this summer time. He returns on Sunday for the primary time.
There are some fascinating historic parallels, too. Managers returning to former golf equipment for the primary time can discover the event awkward. David Moyes misplaced at Everton with Manchester United, Graham Potter misplaced at Brighton with Chelsea, whereas Thomas Frank drew at Brentford with Tottenham, Brendan Rodgers drew at Swansea with Liverpool and Mauricio Pochettino drew at Southampton with Tottenham.
These outcomes spotlight the bizarre dynamics of those fixtures. The house crowd is aware of the supervisor, the gamers know the supervisor and there may be an additional edge to the event.
Bournemouth are 19/10 with Sky Guess for the win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Betting on Leeds when the value is true is a clever technique, as a result of as a rule, precisely what you are getting. Organisation, aggression, a menace from set items and a crew the place everybody seems comfy enjoying the identical method.
They usually merely do not lose many video games.
Leeds have misplaced simply certainly one of their final 13 Premier League matches relationship again to March, successful six and drawing six. That is the fewest defeats of any facet within the division over that interval. Their newest efficiency was one other reminder of the components, too, as they dismantled Newcastle 4-1 at Elland Street.
However it’s the first-half numbers that basically catch my eye.
Throughout their final 19 video games, Leeds have conceded simply two objectives earlier than half-time, maintaining 17 first-half clear sheets in that sequence. That’s a rare stage of consistency and it tells you one thing about how well-drilled they’re from the primary whistle.
Crystal Palace, in the meantime, have already conceded 11 objectives of their opening 4 league video games. So I am going again to the Leeds issue. The Leeds/Leeds half-time/full-time value of seven/4 with Sky Guess appeals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester Metropolis vs Sunderland, Sunday 2pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
There may be one Premier League opponent nonetheless lacking from Erling Haaland’s hit checklist…Sunderland.
He has scored towards 24 of the 25 groups he has confronted within the competitors with the Black Cats the one exception. That makes this really feel like a very harmful fixture for Sunderland, particularly given the ridiculous type Haaland is at present having fun with.
He has scored in every of his final three Premier League appearances and 9 instances throughout his final 9 league video games. His newest effort, the winner towards Manchester United at Outdated Trafford, was one other instance of that ruthless effectivity.
So, reasonably than taking the brief value on Haaland to attain by itself, I wish to add a few circumstances to spice up the value.
Haaland to attain in a Manchester Metropolis win and underneath 3.5 objectives is 11/8 with Sky Guess.
Sunderland may be awkward opponents to interrupt down whereas Metropolis have typically been successful video games with out essentially turning each victory right into a goal-fest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Fulham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
One other poor end result earlier than the prolonged worldwide break wouldn’t be perfect for Michael Carrick, who’s already discovering himself within the acquainted cycle that has engulfed Manchester United managers in latest seasons. United have gained simply certainly one of their opening 4 league video games after which threw away a 2-0 lead towards Brighton in midweek.
The Evens about an away win is tempting, notably as a result of Fulham will make this an open recreation. That ought to swimsuit United’s attacking gamers, however I am extra concerned with a goals-based angle.
These two sides have had the joint-most touches within the opposition field within the Premier League this season, with 139 every. That could be a helpful indicator of the attacking intent we might see at Craven Cottage.
And one participant stands out.
No participant has touched the ball extra within the opposition field than Josh King, who has 30 such touches this season. He has additionally scored twice from 11 photographs, with 5 of these efforts discovering the goal.
That makes the 11/8 with Sky Guess for each groups to attain and King to have a number of photographs heading in the right direction notably interesting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Jones Is aware of’ greatest bets…
- 1pt on Tottenham vs Aston Villa underneath 2.5 objectives (10/11 with Sky Guess)
- 1pt on James McAtee to be carded (13/2 with Sky Guess)
- 1pt on Leif Davis +1 shot heading in the right direction (100/30 with Sky Guess)