Drones are in all places within the information and on the frontlines of the Iran-U.S. Conflict and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, however their most latest use on a battlefield in Central Asia represents a long-term subject – continued dependency on overseas suppliers. The Central Asian states may be changing their long-term Russian safety dependency with a Turkish one.
Central Asian leaders danger deepening this dependency and worsening safety vulnerabilities as they announce offers with overseas suppliers which can be typically headquartered in a single state – Turkiye. Nonetheless, developments in 2026 present that alternatives for native growth and manufacturing that may profit regional economies with out offloading safety tasks exist. Native politicians simply want to take a position domestically.
Within the 2022 border battle between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Turkiye’s Baykar Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial autos (UAVs) performed a well-publicized position. After that battle, Bishkek determined to deepen its Turkish dependency, ordering Aksungur and Akinci platforms, each from Turkish producers, TAI and Baykar, respectively. It had already ordered further TB2s and Anka (from TAI) as effectively.
Drones are definitely cheaper than manned plane, however these imported platforms weren’t with out price. Civil servants took a pay hit to fund the acquisition of the brand new programs. And this doesn’t think about the price of operations and upkeep. To maintain these plane flying with spare components, ammunition, and sensors would require continuous funding. When shopping for any big-ticket merchandise, that platform is committing the state to long-term sustainment with sure suppliers.
Given Turkiye’s mercurial protection coverage in recent times, can Bishkek depend on enough sustainment within the occasion of one other battle? Turkiye, a NATO ally, hoped to obtain F-35s, however acquired Russian S-400s, and is reportedly attempting to resell these air protection system to the UAE, earlier than aiming to rejoin F-35 talks. Along with the preliminary procurement, relying on a overseas provider means worrying about receiving further components and frames to interchange losses from put on and tear or fight operations.
Russia and Ukraine initially regarded to overseas help for his or her attritive struggle. Tehran provided Moscow with propeller-driven one-way assault Shahed-136 drones throughout the first yr of the battle. But, Moscow quickly realized that the battlefield demanded the programs evolve. Manufacturing amenities had been arrange inside Russia and enhancements had been utilized to the platform together with jet energy, anti-radar supplies, and higher steerage (the most recent Russian-made model is dubbed the Geran-4/5).
The same studying course of occurred on Kyiv’s aspect. Chinese language-made DJI Mavics, Turkish TB2s, and American Switchblades supplied early stock for Ukrainian forces. But, quickly manufacturing was moved in nation and growth processes introduced nearer to the frontlines, to include the every day classes of countermeasures, deception, and the realities of a non-permissive battlespace.
Whereas the help programs wanted to maintain UAVs aloft are less complicated than these required for fighters, the present Iran-U.S. Conflict – a way more permissive setting than that in japanese Ukraine – has proven how weak drones are to anti-air capabilities. The U.S. has misplaced 45 MQ-9 Reaper tactical UAVs, 25 p.c of its fleet, for the reason that begin of the marketing campaign. Given the years and value to interchange its autos, the Pentagon may change over to totally different programs altogether.
Maybe as a response to its competitors and battle with Bishkek, Dushanbe turned to its personal overseas associate to develop a UAV functionality. Across the similar time, in 2022, it was reported {that a} program to supply, doubtless assemble, Iranian Ababil-2s in Tajikistan, was reached. On the signing had been Iranian Main Common Mohammad Bagheri and Tajik Protection Minister Sherali Mirzo. Bagheri was killed in Israeli air strikes in 2025 and Mirzo was shuffled out of workplace the identical yr.
It’s unclear how a lot progress has been made with this facility, or if this was all only a smoke display. But, even when this mission had gotten off the bottom, it’s onerous to see how that may not have resulted in vital danger. Manufacturing drones for Tehran may in a short time convey banking and greenback restrictions from Washington, making such a enterprise an actual safety danger and potential large money-loser. In the end, this seems to be 4 years with solely minimal progress on UAV capabilities for Tajikistan.
Given the pitfalls of overseas dependency, Central Asia might look to develop its personal programs, or on the very least license the total manufacturing course of for its personal domestically manufactured unmanned programs. First off, the prices are usually not prohibitive, not like, say, creating an armored automobile, ship, or manned plane. Second, the size and safety wants within the area are adequate to help home UAV manufacturing.
Third, regional states have already got a begin on the analysis, growth, and manufacturing wanted to make such cooperation successful. Lastly, the alternatives of joint drone analysis and manufacturing may result in elevated safety cooperation alongside borders and in opposition to transnational threats. Doing so will assist to flee the pitfalls of discovered incapacity. What’s key although is that native leaders spend money on R&D domestically – not outsource options.
Take for instance the Kyrgyz firm Nanospace that introduced in Might 2026 plans to open a UAV institute in Tash-Dobo, simply outdoors Bishkek. This plan continues to be in its infancy, however coaching operators and creating applied sciences to community quite a few small drones is a crucial step in creating home air protection, analysis, and surveillance, capabilities that aren’t depending on overseas help.
Central Asia is already a regional training vacation spot. This may proceed, until home actors eradicate tutorial freedom and quell primary analysis. Eurasian college students have lengthy come to Kyrgyzstan for greater training, whether or not on the College of Central Asia or the American College of Central Asia. Kazakhstan is a main worldwide tutorial hub now as effectively, with some 30,000-plus overseas college students attending department establishments of Cardiff and Woosong, in addition to attending homegrown universities like Al Farabi and Eurasian Nationwide. So, there are main alternatives to community expertise and applied sciences that might profit human capital and protection growth for all the area.
In the meantime, an exhibit within the late summer time of 2026 in Uzbekistan highlighted a brand new Shunqor-8 drone interceptor from the Middle for Revolutionary Applied sciences that might function an affordable various to conventional missile protection. Normally, Russian exports have supplied a lot of the area’s air protection. Lately, for instance, even amid a struggle that’s demanding main shares of air defenses, Kyrgyzstan demonstrated S-300PS and Tor-M2KM (long- and short-range) SAMs and Tajikistan took deliveries from Russia.
The area nonetheless connects to legacy CIS Joint Air Protection System (ADS), so that is one other vital step when it comes to Central Asia states offering for their very own protection. Boilerplate statements steered “modernizing” the ADS and advancing cooperation in 2026, although there was a point out of AI being built-in. As well as, the portions being delivered to the area are doubtless inadequate for any extended battle. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have already got expertise with three way partnership manufacturing strains. There’s no cause for Central Asian states to proceed to obtain UAVs from overseas reasonably than constructing them (even with licenses) at house.
Now, clearly the area gained’t exchange each imported element with a home analogue. Native producers, for instance, are unlikely to compete within the worldwide marketplace for electro-optical/infrared sensors. But, for smaller first-person view UAVs, and tactical UAVs, there’s loads of room for selections when it comes to cameras for reconnaissance or navigation programs which can be mapped to the native setting and don’t rely on one satellite tv for pc community. Anticipating such payload flexibility may help Central Asian states keep away from getting “locked in” to at least one new associate that simply supplants the outdated one.
One-way assault (OWA) drones are one other alternative for Central Asian states to higher, extra successfully, goal safety threats. One of many points in latest fight operations has been an employment of seemingly indiscriminate or inaccurate artillery hearth and fight plane strikes. OWA drones supply a technique to handle this and safeguard civilian lives. For instance, throughout the 2022 Tajik-Kyrgyz battle, indiscriminate artillery shelling and computerized weapons hearth contributed to vital civilian casualties in Khistevarz, Ovchi Kalacha, Ak-Sai, and Margun, amongst different places.
In a lot earlier conflicts, manned plane with unguided weapons had been ineffective, or suffered vital casualties, together with in Rasht and the Ferghana Valley area. The price of manned fight plane is such that almost all states within the area can not afford such a fleet. And in any case, even when inexpensive, this nonetheless results in overseas dependency. Coaching and training, components and repairs, and operations even depended largely on Russia. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are usually not distinctive on this, however certainly this is a chance to cut back civilian casualties in battle zones and restrict reliance on a overseas energy.
Lastly, there are a number of interconnected challenges that drones may help the area handle. Every little thing from detecting smuggling and trafficking throughout distant borders; to monitoring water circulation from glaciers and water use downstream; or securing worldwide occasions just like the Nomad Video games, there are big alternatives for cooperative monitoring and safety efforts with shared drone capabilities.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan don’t want Russia or China to handle these challenges. They don’t must rely on a overseas producer for drones or the capabilities to supply most of the UAVs which have wide-ranging functions for the economic system, setting, and protection of the area. And, to paraphrase some recommendation from Kenneth Waltz: they need to be contemplating the way to counterbalance new hegemonic threats, not swapping one vulnerability for one more. Certainly, Astana is already headed on this course.
The worldwide order is being remade in actual time, so regional governments must look to their very own safety. Nice powers may “ignore” their smaller neighbors for a time, however who’s to say when that benign neglect will come to an finish. Funding in joint training, coaching, and manufacturing as we speak can allow these states to handle issues regionally, and sever dependencies on the similar time, and make the entire area safer from exterior threats over the long term. In the event that they wait till the subsequent regional battle, it could be too late.