GREEN: There is a dangerous factor of pipeline take care of Alberta

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In November 2025, the Carney authorities and the Alberta authorities unveiled their “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) that might create a pathway for Alberta to get a million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline constructed to hold future oilsands manufacturing to profitable markets in Asia.

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That pipeline settlement got here with many strings connected, together with a requirement for the simultaneous “Development and financing of the world’s largest carbon seize, utilization, and storage (CCUS) challenge for the aim of constructing Alberta oil among the many lowest carbon depth produced barrels of oil on the planet.” Particularly, the Pathways challenge, to be constructed by an alliance of Canada’s 5 largest oilsands firms. To place it mildly, Pathways just isn’t nicely understood.

From a bodily feasibility standpoint, Pathways appears like dangerous enterprise. Whereas capturing, liquifying and re-injecting carbon dioxide (generated by oil manufacturing) to additional improve oil subject manufacturing has a protracted historical past, the concept of capturing it and burying it with out utilizing it to generate extra oil manufacturing (and income) has solely seen a restricted variety of pilot tasks (with combined observe information) world wide.

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Most of these carbon-capture tasks underperformed at capturing and storing carbon dioxide emissions, whereas costing considerably greater than anticipated. In accordance with an evaluation of 16 carbon-capture tasks world wide, the simplest carbon-capture services captured solely 78 per cent of the quantity of carbon the trade claimed the expertise would seize. The common seize fee was solely 47.6 per cent.

A second research, which surveyed the literature on the atmosphere, well being and security (EHS) dangers of CCUS, confirmed that simply because the bodily challenges of establishing and working such services at scale holds many unknowns, so do the EHS dimensions. Certainly, CCUS at scale might pose important threats to environmental well being and security together with stimulating elevated seismic exercise round carbon injection and storage websites, floor and floor water contamination dangers, soil contamination dangers, and probably leakage of carbon dioxide at concentrations hazardous to animal or human well being. Probably the most outstanding EHS threat connected to CCUS is elevated seismic exercise.

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At one carbon dioxide storage challenge in central Algeria, 1000’s of very small seismic occasions had been recorded, with their prevalence carefully following modifications in carbon dioxide injection charges. Related behaviour was noticed on the Hontomín pilot website in Spain, the place small imperceptible seismic occasions occurred in periods of upper injection strain and longer injection checks.

In North America, large-scale disposal of saltwater from oil and gasoline manufacturing — an analogue to large-scale carbon dioxide injection — has precipitated seismicity when injection occurred in formations linked to deep seismic faults. In some instances, very small strain will increase had been sufficient to set off seismic occasions. Seismic threat is already a recognized threat of the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique of oil and gasoline manufacturing. CCUS will want cautious monitoring.

For now, the grand Canada/Alberta pipeline-to-the-pacific deal is shifting alongside on the typical glacial tempo for such tasks. The problem has fallen off Canada’s information cycle, dwarfed by issues of commerce relations with our neighbours to the south.

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However Canadians ought to hold an eye fixed out as the brand new Pathways carbon seize and storage challenge proceeds. Whereas our policymakers painting it as one thing simply achieved, primarily based on proof from real-world prior use of CCUS, these applied sciences have underperformed and been proven to pose important dangers to human well being and the atmosphere. A cautious eye is required, regardless of the place you reside in Canada.

Kenneth Inexperienced is a senior fellow with the Mathison Power Analysis Initiative on the Fraser Institute.

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