Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iturup Island (recognized in Japan as Etorofu) on August 13. It’s the biggest of the disputed Southern Kurils, that are often known as the Northern Territories in Japan. The islands have been occupied by Russia for the reason that finish of World Battle II however are additionally claimed by Japan.
The Kuril Islands have been a relentless thorn in Japan-Russia relations. The disputed islands are one of many causes that Japan and Russia have but to signal a peace treaty concluding World Battle II.
Japan has lengthy sought to foster financial cooperation with Russia as a part of a broader push to normalize relations – and eventually resolve the dispute. The Kuril Islands/Northern Territories situation was particularly near the guts of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, given its significance to his father, Abe Shintaro, through the elder Abe’s tenure as Japan’s international minister.
Nonetheless, the circumstances for Japan-Russia rapprochement are unfavorable. Since 2022, Japan has joined the US and European states in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. After Japan imposed sanctions, Russia formally suspended peace treaty negotiations and canceled visa-free journey for Japanese nationals to go to ancestral graves on the disputed islands.
Now Putin’s go to to one of many disputed islands has enflamed tensions nonetheless additional. Then-President Dmitry Medvedev visited in 2010; nevertheless, that is the primary time Putin has executed so.
Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae responded in a televised assertion on the identical day as Putin’s go to, saying that his journey “hurts the sentiments of the Japanese folks and is totally unacceptable.” She added, “We hope that the Russian aspect will take the seriousness of the matter totally to coronary heart.”
She instructed reporters, “I need to say [his visit] has additional hardened public sentiment towards Russia in Japan, making it troublesome to revive relations over the medium to long run.”
Although Japan’s response might have been restricted to the International Ministry, Takaichi selected to make a press release herself, given her perception that the prime minister should take a powerful stance on territorial points, in keeping with reporting in The Japan Information. Now that the problem has been escalated to the prime ministerial stage, it should additionally make quiet de-escalation tougher.
Russia’s Deputy International Minister Mikhail Galuzin summoned Japan’s ambassador in Moscow, Muto Akira, to lodge a proper protest over Takaichi’s “anti-Russia” statements. “The Russian aspect acknowledged that Russia’s sovereignty and jurisdiction over the southern Kuril Islands are inviolable,” Galuzin instructed Muto, in keeping with a press launch from the Russian International Ministry. “…Any makes an attempt by the Japanese aspect to immediately or not directly name this apparent actuality into query are categorically unacceptable and illegitimate.”
Why would Putin select this second to go to the Northern Territories? There are long-, medium-, and short-term issues. In the long run, Japan’s predictable protest to Putin’s go to would give Russia, China, and North Korean a chance to rally collectively towards Japan’s “aggressive” response – which Russia itself provoked.
Within the medium time period, Japan’s heightened power vulnerability because of the ongoing Iran battle will restrict any actual, substantive response by Tokyo. The Center East is an unreliable supply of power amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Japan is already doing essentially the most it may well to carve out exemptions for its Russian power imports. Japan imported 9 % of its complete LNG imports from Russia and obtained an extension from the US for its continued exemption to import LNG from Sakhalin-2 from June to December 2026. In Could, Japan started importing Russian petroleum as properly.
90 % of Japan’s petroleum imports and 6 % of Japan’s LNG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, so long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, Japanese leverage over Russia is restricted.
Within the quick time period, Putin’s selection to go to the island two days earlier than the 81st anniversary of Japan saying its intent to give up in World Battle II would guarantee loads of protection in all home media at a time when there may be heightened sensitivity to battle, territorial conquest, and historic injustices.
Certainly, on the identical day as Putin’s go to, the Chinese language and Russian ambassadors to Japan issued a joint assertion that “the contribution of our folks to the victory [in World War II] laid a strong basis for the postwar world order.” Additionally they pledged to oppose makes an attempt to revise the outcomes of World Battle II and warned towards remilitarization within the area.
There may also be a decrease home election in Russia this September, for the primary time for the reason that invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
There have been at all times political and diplomatic advantages to visiting the Kuril Islands, and Putin selected a second when the advantages can be maximized and the prices minimized.
Notably, Putin’s go to got here amid ongoing naval drills by Russia’s Pacific Fleet close to the disputed islands, which additionally earned a sharp protest from Japan. The live-fire workout routines round two of the 4 Kuril Islands are scheduled to final till August 29, in keeping with Russia’s discover of a delegated maritime exclusion zone. Putin traveled to supervise the army train in individual earlier than stopping at Iturup Island.
How ought to Japan reply? Within the quick time period, Japan’s response shall be calibrated to what steps Russia takes subsequent, and it’s unattainable to foretell. Within the medium time period, Japan ought to additional strengthen ties with European international locations additionally coping with the Russian risk.
In the long run, Japan must convey extra renewable power on-line. Whether it is troublesome to chop off Russian LNG presently, as Takaichi has argued to the US within the latest previous, then let this second be a wakeup name to begin treating Japan’s power safety with the seriousness that it deserves.