Left: Meta CEO and Chairman Mark Zuckerberg arrives at Los Angeles Superior Courtroom in February. Proper: Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi, on the Semafor World Financial system Summit in April.
Patrick T. Fallon/AFP and Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg through Getty Pictures
disguise caption
toggle caption
Patrick T. Fallon/AFP and Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg through Getty Pictures
Earlier than Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg directed staff to construct a standalone prediction market app, he proposed shopping for Kalshi, the main firm within the prediction market sector, in response to three individuals with information of the discussions who weren’t approved to talk publicly.
Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour a couple of attainable takeover final yr as Kalshi’s reputation surged, however the negotiations by no means superior, in response to one of many individuals who had direct information of the assembly.
There are competing narratives about why the talks broke down, with some saying Mansour wouldn’t transfer ahead with a sale and others indicating Meta thought-about the authorized and moral questions surrounding Kalshi too messy.
No matter made the discussions crumble, Meta nonetheless desires to faucet into the prediction market craze. Zuckerberg has stood up a group that’s now working to launch its personal prediction market app known as Area, which inside paperwork reviewed by NPR present will enable individuals to make guesses about future occasions.
In contrast to Kalshi and its major competitor, Polymarket, Meta’s app is not going to take bets utilizing actual cash. As an alternative, customers will wager “play cash” on the result of happenings within the information and subjects trending on-line. Meta’s paperwork say the corporate’s synthetic intelligence programs will energy the questions and decide who wins or loses primarily based on one thing occurring or not.
Neither Kalshi nor Meta would supply NPR with a remark when requested in regards to the acquisition talks.
Prediction markets have turn into one of many fastest-growing components of the tech business in recent times. The websites enable individuals to position bets on the whole lot from sports activities to elections as to whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.
The large inflow of customers into prediction markets makes the area an apparent goal for Zuckerberg, in response to Tim Wu, a Columbia College legislation professor who suggested the Biden White Home on tech coverage.
“Meta appears to clutch at each shiny object,” Wu mentioned. “With the assistance of their promoting money cow, they have been in a position to fail many times with out consequence,” he mentioned, citing Meta’s pullback from the so-called “metaverse,” and the abandonment of its cryptocurrency venture, Libra. “I can not think about a on line casino app with pretend cash goes to be a lot of a thrill,” he mentioned. “However possibly it is one thing my kids would really like, I do not know.”
Thanks partially to a permissive regulatory setting in Washington, prediction markets have seen staggering progress.
In June 2025, about $28 billion was traded each month on Kalshi and Polymarket. A yr later, month-to-month quantity on the websites is almost $220 billion, pushed principally by sports-related betting, in response to The Block, a information and analysis firm that tracks prediction market information.
Kalshi, which is overseen by commodities regulators in Washington, was valued at $22 billion in its newest funding spherical in Might, up from a $2 billion valuation final yr. Polymarket, which operates an abroad alternate exterior the attain of U.S. regulators, is valued at $10.7 billion, in response to the personal market information agency PitchBook.
The rise of prediction markets has set off dozens of authorized battles pitting the tech corporations in opposition to state gaming officers, who insist the websites are playing beneath a distinct identify.
President Trump has vowed to guard prediction market corporations, whilst controversies over insider buying and selling and market manipulation plague the business.
Justice Division officers have opened two legal instances over alleged insider buying and selling on Polymarket. One includes a particular forces soldier who allegedly profited from categorized details about the seize of Venezuelan chief Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. Within the different case, DOJ accuses a Google worker who earned greater than $1 million of utilizing confidential information about search tendencies to accurately guess the most-Googled individuals of 2025.
Meta’s “purchase or bury” technique
Zuckerberg’s curiosity in buying Kalshi follows a well-known company sample. Meta has amassed a consumer base of greater than 3 billion worldwide via the takeover of rising social media platforms. Notably, Meta’s purchases of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 supercharged its attain and allowed it to turn into a colossal drive in digital promoting. Extra not too long ago, Meta purchased AI wearable firm Limitless and Moltbook, a social community for AI bots.
Meta’s takeovers have attracted scrutiny from federal regulators. The Federal Commerce Fee alleged at a trial final yr that Meta engages in a “purchase or bury” technique through which nascent rivals are both acquired by the corporate, or Meta introduces a service cloning the competitor to squash their enterprise.
A decide sided with Meta, ruling that the corporate didn’t violate any competitors legal guidelines when it wolfed up Instagram and WhatsApp. Legal professionals with the FTC are interesting the choice.
Whereas the acquisition talks by no means superior, Meta did strike a partnership with Kalshi in March, permitting for straightforward integration of Kalshi markets on Meta’s social media app Threads.
Wu, the previous White Home tech coverage adviser, mentioned Meta grew to become an organization price greater than $1 trillion by buying apps reasonably than constructing its personal. He argues Meta throws its energy and cash round like a monopoly and distorts the aggressive subject for everybody else.
“WhatsApp and Instagram have given them endless earnings, however regular corporations can not fail 5 instances in a row,” he mentioned. “Meta trying to take over Kalshi suits in with the corporate’s long-standing practices.”
Leave a Reply