Politico continues its dogged fake “reporting” to create a story that Democrats are a lock to manage the U.S. Senate in 2026. Which provides me an incredible opening to make one in every of my periodic updates on a few of the essential Senate races. The Republicans have a 53 to 47-seat majority within the Senate. There are 35 seats up for grabs in 2026. The Democrats want a web choose up of 4 seats to win management.
The central downside for the Democrats is that solely two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in aggressive states. The opposite 20 GOP seats are in states the place Donald Trump gained by double digits. That nearly by no means occurs in Senate elections, not to mention twice. Within the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats gained a landslide, however they nonetheless didn’t carry a single district the place Trump gained with that margin.
The Democrats additionally should not lose any of their very own aggressive seats. And within the blue wave of 2018, the Democrats nonetheless misplaced in an upset for his or her incumbent in Florida.
The GOP goes to have a yuge edge in funding, with the RNC, NRSC, the Senate Management Fund, and the MAGA Pac collectively swamping the Democrats.
Lastly, one other inform that the Democrats are underdogs for the Senate is that they’ve gone all in for his or her “Sneaky New Trick – The Indy Imitation Sport.”
However let’s go to some latest updates:
Alaska: Dan Sullivan / 54% R / Lean R
Former statewide elected Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola is difficult incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The RCP common has the 2 deadlocked, though it doesn’t embrace the quite a few Alaska Survey Analysis polls, which persistently present a stable Peltola edge. This can be as a result of the ASR polls have a status for being “left-Heart biased.” Though Peltola is universally recognized and customarily appreciated in Alaska, 1) she was crushed as an incumbent Congresswoman by a weaker candidate than Sullivan; 2) she solely gained her two victories over the very unpopular Sarah Palin; and three) Sen. Sullivan is a popular incumbent with no apparent weaknesses. Each candidates could have loads of cash. Alaska has a bizarre Ranked Alternative Voting system – created to guard renegade Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski – so it’s unclear which candidate has the sting from that (though it could be Peltola). However Sullivan ought to nonetheless be the favourite.
Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.61% D / Leans D
On Might 19, Georgia had its primaries, and the Republican subject to oppose Sen. Jon Ossoff shrunk from three to 2, to proceed to the June 16 runoff. Rep. Mike Collins (GA-10) appears to have a stable polling edge in RCP over Coach Derek Dooley, who’s backed by Gov. Kemp, as my fellow RedStater has reported. The 2 have about equal cash proper now, however each closely path Sen. Ossoff, who has had gangbuster fundraising – for months, I couldn’t watch music movies on the fitness center with out seeing Ossoff adverts pleading for cash. Collins has had some scandal points, however he’s additionally thought of extra MAGA than Dooley, though the president has not endorsed but. Georgia has a bizarre electoral system, too, with a runoff after the November 3, 2026, election, which can assist the Democrats. Regardless, Ossoff is the favourite at this junction, though his left-wing file opens him as much as criticism in a Republican leaning state.
Iowa: Joni Ernst (retiring) / Lean R
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson has the privilege of elevating boatloads of cash whereas watching an unfolding June 2 Democrat major combat between the Bernie Bro candidate Zach Wahls and the Democrat institution’s alternative, Josh Turek. Which Democrat has the first edge is just about the selection of which group is polling the race. The Democrat winner is more likely to be the underdog within the basic, regardless of Democrat optimism, as President Trump gained the state by double digits, and Rep. Hinson represents one of many three aggressive districts, which she has convincingly locked down, whereas the fourth district is closely Republican.
Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Tilt R
The pretend working class, Nazi Democrat in Maine, Graham Platner, has established a polling edge over average Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Similar to her much less loopy Democrat opponent from six years in the past did. However outstanding Democrats are more and more fearful, together with a Democrat Congressman from Massachusetts who has known as Platner’s radicalism “disqualifying.” Amongst a few of the latest Platner loopy statements which have come out is his name for the loss of life of a hero Military veteran in Afghanistan, and his slander of one other conflict hero, the deceased Chris Kyle, whom Platner accused of slaughtering civilians to spice up Kyle’s kill rely. My Redstate colleague has additionally written about Platner’s factually unfaithful assertion that Collins “voted to ship me to Iraq.” Due to Platner’s falsehoods, within the newest polls, the 40 p.c of the state that’s made up of impartial voters has turned in opposition to him. It additionally appears doubtless that a few of the polling within the state has a left-wing bias. Regardless of the polling, there isn’t any query in my thoughts that Sen. Collins is the favourite for this seat, once more.
Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Lean D
Whereas the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly misplaced the 2024 Senate race, raises cash and waits, the Democrats are nonetheless dealing with a aggressive three-way major. Bernie Bro and Radical Muslim Abdul El Sayed appears to have established the first edge within the RCP, however he additionally performs the worst in opposition to Rogers. The institution favourite, Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), is being hindered by her lack of a visceral hatred in direction of Israel and her debate screwup on the filibuster. If El Sayed wins the first, he’ll be part of the crazed Jew-haters group that the Democrats are assembling all through the nation, together with the Nazi in Maine and the Al-Qaeda member in a New Jersey Home Race. Sadly for him, he shall be operating in a a lot much less Democrat leaning space than the others nuts.
Texas: John Cornyn (defeated within the major) / Lean R
On Might 26, Texas Lawyer Common Ken Paxton crushed – with enormous turnout – incumbent Sen. John Cornyn within the Republican major runoff. Though Paxton has his personal points, this end result shouldn’t be surprising, as Cornyn actually shouldn’t have run once more. (Incumbents typically have a tough time understanding when to give up – see my former boss, Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter.) The Democrats are as soon as once more assured of victory – regardless of Wendy Davis, Beto O’Rourke, and Colin Allred, and so forth. – this time with state Rep. James Talarico. Talarico is a fundraising powerhouse whose adverts are actually popping as much as me repeatedly on the fitness center. Talarico additionally leads within the polling, though pollsters are inclined to undervalue Republican assist in Texas. Nonetheless, Talarico is a far-left loopy, which Paxton has already begun exposing within the media, and Talarico is already being pressured to clarify his statements, which is at all times a foul signal. Additionally, Talarico could have issues getting out his obligatory black voters, and the GOP is already uniting behind Paxton.
Editor’s Be aware: The 2026 Midterms will decide the destiny of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans should preserve management of each chambers of Congress.
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