BOGOTÁ, Colombia – Mexico has been rocked by a wave of retaliatory violence after authorities killed the chief of the Jalisco New Era Cartel (CJNG), Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias ‘El Mencho’, final Sunday. The true impression of his demise is but to be seen, nevertheless.
The drug kingpin’s killing threatens to unleash a wave of unexpected penalties within the area’s complicated, interconnected felony underworld past Mexico’s borders.
The CJNG is among the strongest and ruthless felony organizations on this planet, overseeing an enormous empire of fentanyl, methamphetamine and cocaine trafficking throughout 40 nations, in keeping with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Company.
With El Mencho gone and a successor but to emerge, analysts say {that a} attainable break up within the CJNG may set off shockwaves throughout Latin America, threatening to unleash violence like that seen in Mexico this week.
Hassle on the border
Among the many nations most in danger from the fallout of El Mencho’s killing is Guatemala, in keeping with analysts.
“One place to observe is northern Guatemala and Chiapas, the place the CJNG seems to have principally elbowed (the) Sinaloa (cartel) apart very violently currently,” mentioned Adam Isacson, defence director on the Washington Workplace on Latin America (WOLA).
In recent times, the southern Mexican border state of Chiapas has been the location of a fierce contest between the CJNG and its arch rival, the Sinaloa cartel. Whereas the CJNG managed to largely set up dominance within the area, the Sinaloa cartel nonetheless maintains a presence in Chiapas.
“If Mencho’s departure weakens the CJNG, Guatemala will really feel it,” added Isacson, suggesting that the Sinaloa cartel may seize on a break up within the CJNG to take again management of Chiapas.
Such a battle would threaten to additional destabilize Guatemala’s border areas, which have already grappled with organized crime lately because of their strategic location for drug and human trafficking.
Guatemalan media have linked the CJNG to the so-called Chiapas and Guatemala cartel, an area organized crime group reportedly backed by Jalisco.
Simply hours after El Mecho’s killing, Guatemalan authorities introduced plans to bolster border defences: “Following experiences of the alleged demise of… “El Mencho,” the Guatemalan Military, as a part of Operation Ring of Fireplace, elevated its operations (monitoring, management, patrols, surveillance, presence and safety) in strategic sectors of the Guatemala-Mexico border space.”
The gangs of Guayaquil
Not solely may cartel battle in Mexico spill throughout borders, however the CJNG’s far-reaching felony tentacles imply El Mencho’s demise could also be felt hundreds of kilometres south.
“If we take into consideration the fallout within the area, doubtlessly for a reconfiguration of energy inside Jalisco, Ecuador could be most likely the place to look,” mentioned Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America on the Worldwide Disaster Group.
Ecuador has grappled with hovering murder lately, with the nationwide homicide price rising by 429 per cent between 2019 and 2024, making it the very best in Latin America.
A big portion of those murders will be attributed to a wave of gang violence centred across the coastal metropolis of Guayaquil, a key departure level for cocaine. Two U.S.-designated terrorist teams, Los Lobos and Los Choneros, have been engaged in a bloody turf battle over territory and entry to trafficking routes.
This contest is inexorably linked to Mexican organized crime, with Los Lobos backed by CJNG and Los Choneros tied to the Sinaloa cartel.
“The function of Mexican teams in Ecuador may be very pronounced, and it’s a spot the place they’ve had a way more hands-on strategy,” defined Dickinson.
The CJNG supplied funding, arms and strategic help to assist Los Lobos set up spheres of affect in Guayaquil and different cities, successfully securing its personal entry to drug transport routes.
Within the case of an inside battle over El Mencho’s succession or a break up within the Jalisco cartel, Los Lobos may lose backing from their key benefactor. Such an eventuality might tip the scales in favour of Los Choneros, doubtlessly unleashing a contemporary wave of violence in Ecuador.
“I believe Ecuador will surely be a spot to observe within the coming months as we see how the inner energy dynamics inside Jalisco evolve,” mentioned Dickinson.
Cocaine and battle in Colombia
El Mencho’s demise additionally raises questions in Colombia, the place the CJNG sources cocaine to move and promote world wide.
Colombian authorities have reported arrests of Mexican nationals linked to the group throughout the nation, often in cocaine manufacturing scorching spots.
Not like Ecuador, the CJNG’s relationships in Colombia are predominantly financial, establishing enterprise partnerships with a number of Colombian armed teams, together with remnants of the now-demobilized FARC guerrilla group, in keeping with analysts.
“If CJNG splits up, we will anticipate some violence in Colombia as competitors for the group’s trafficking routes intensifies,” mentioned WOLA’s Isacson.
If the Jalisco cartel have been to cease shopping for cocaine because of an inside energy battle, Colombian armed teams tied to the Sinaloa cartel may even see a chance to swoop in and seize energy.
Competitors over territory between warring armed teams has been a key driver of the inner battle in Colombia, which in 2025 recorded its worst 12 months in a decade, in keeping with rights teams.
Nevertheless, analysts be aware it’s unlikely that the CJNG would altogether cease shopping for cocaine from Colombia.
“The cocaine market significantly is so mature and has been working for thus many a long time that it tends to maintain working even when there are these kinds of felony splits,” defined Dickinson.
Others be aware the fragmented nature of the availability chain, which implies that even when the CJNG stops shopping for cocaine, different consumers will discover a approach to transfer it.
“These transactions and relationships aren’t one to at least one, there are a number of brokers and intermediaries concerned within the drug commerce who’re nonetheless going to need to transfer product from Colombia to elsewhere,” mentioned Shuldiner.
Whereas the CJNG’s succession course of stays opaque, authorities throughout Latin America shall be intently monitoring the cartel’s subsequent steps after El Mencho’s demise.
Latin America Stories
Our web site is the place for the newest breaking information, unique scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and join our each day e-newsletter, Posted, right here.
Leave a Reply