In its first statement on the worldwide reactions to Trump’s midterm defeat, the New York Instances stated the world questioned what the end result may imply for commerce, vitality, and ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran. However that’s not what the policymakers in Beijing have been considering. A readers’ remark greatest summed up the talk in Chinese language public opinion over China’s response: “Will China ship a congratulatory message to the US Democratic Celebration?”
The Chinese language Communist Celebration (CCP) management is confronted with new questions. Ought to Beijing deal with Trump as a “lame duck,” or ought to Xi Jinping proceed to put money into “cultivating” (or, extra bluntly, “entrapping”) him? Extra broadly, ought to Beijing change tack or keep on pursuing a “constructive relationship of strategic stability” with the USA?
The subsequent U.S. Congress, which can be managed by strong Democratic majorities in each homes, will face three urgent points involving China coverage. Taiwan, the factitious intelligence (AI) race with China, and China’s industrial “overcapacity.” As all the time, Taiwan goes to be essentially the most contentious of the three.
Taiwan
Apparently, two of China’s comparatively influential voices on China-U.S. relations – Chen Dongxiao, president of Shanghai Institute for Worldwide Research (SIIS), and Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute for Worldwide Research (IIS), Fudan College in Shanghai – maintain contrasting views on the affect of the midterms on China-U.S. relations. Chen, who can also be vice chair of the China Nationwide Affiliation for Worldwide Relations, stated, “The [midterm] outcomes are unlikely to ship a ‘disruptive’ shock to relations between Beijing and Washington, regardless of potential volatility over the difficulty of Taiwan.”
Alternatively, Wu categorically stated the ability shift in Washington would definitely have an effect on the China-U.S. relationship. He advised the South China Morning Publish: “One risk is that the Democratic Celebration would put stress on Trump concerning the Taiwan situation.” He emphasised that the Democrats wouldn’t waste time in criticizing Trump for betraying Taiwan and growing ties with Beijing, and predicted that the brand new Congress would push Trump to approve a long-stalled $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Of word, Wu is taken into account by many in the USA to be near the authorities in Beijing; he was on the visitor checklist of invitees on the dinner hosted by Xi Jinping welcoming Trump to Beijing in Might.
China is aware of absolutely nicely that Taiwan is essentially the most delicate and essential of all controversial points within the bilateral relations with the USA – and that Taiwan is, for a similar purpose, a key bargaining chip in Washington’s political dealings with Beijing. China’s management can also be well-aware of the fragile nature of the halted arms gross sales to Taiwan beneath Trump to this point. Due to this fact, Beijing would chorus from exerting any additional stress on the “lame duck” Trump on the difficulty.
Simply because the midterm outcomes made it clear that Trump had misplaced his majority in each homes of Congress, Beijing let it’s identified by the Overseas Ministry spokesperson that China will proceed to work with Washington towards a “constructive relationship of strategic stability.” Chen additional suggested Beijing to proceed to elucidate its view of the “constructive relationship of strategic stability” to the incoming Congress and “take ‘proactive’ steps to uphold the consensus.”
The China-U.S. AI Race
The CCP is completely invested in profitable the AI race. As The Economist noticed: “Throughout a go to early this 12 months, China’s prime minister, Li Qiang, gushed that innovation like this was ‘the important thing to profitable the longer term.’” The remark, made in Shenzhen in January, got here within the context of China’s premier expressing appreciation for the progress made since 2018 – when the primary World AI Convention (WAIC) was held in Shanghai. Li was successfully saying that China’s future relies on defeating the USA within the AI race.
Over the previous 12 months or so, China has dramatically stepped up sector-wide efforts in adopting AI. In July 2025, China hosted its annual WAIC in Shanghai and introduced the launching of the “International AI Governance Motion Plan.” Additionally in July 2025, the USA too launched its personal America’s AI Motion Plan which was geared toward tightening management on the export of superior semiconductors to China.
A month later, carrying ahead this momentum, China’s State Council issued an “AI Plus” (人工智能+) coverage directive geared toward guiding sector-wide adoption of AI domestically in China. China’s “AI Plus” plan is a name to motion geared toward accelerating the appliance of AI throughout all areas of the Chinese language economic system, trade, and society.
A current Al Jazeera report on “who’s profitable the AI race” between China and the USA concluded: “The US dominates AI spending and computing energy, however China is forward in analysis and shutting the hole on superior fashions.”
Consultants in China are apprehensive in regards to the AI competitors between the USA and China heating up within the subsequent two years, as the rest of Trump’s presidency co-exists with a Democratic Celebration-controlled Congress. Zhao Minghao, a world relations professor at Fudan College in Shanghai, steered to SCMP that, as a result of AI was a significant subject within the midterms, the talk – and its intersection with China-U.S. competitors – was more likely to take heart stage as soon as the Democrats achieve management of Congress.
Export Controls and Industrial Overcapacity
A number of specialists in the USA and China really feel the Democratic Congress will act extra aggressively towards China, particularly on Taiwan and export controls. Professor Wu Xinbo, cited above, strongly feels the ability shift in Washington would positively have an effect on U.S. relations with China. The “Democratic Celebration has the backing of labour unions, so it seeks to guard many industries, notably the automotive trade. So they’d oppose any dialogue by [Trump’s] U.S.-China Board of Funding on easing of Chinese language funding within the U.S.,” Wu stated.
Moreover, as concerning rising stress and rising criticism in Europe and within the U.S. of China’s industrial “overcapacity,” specialists in China are on the identical web page as their authorities. Dismissing the notion of overcapacity, these specialists argue that Beijing’s considering on the difficulty, particularly within the context of “aggressive” new Congress can be to fortify itself and additional diversify its commerce ties.
Zhao Ying, a overseas affairs professional, stated in a current interview: “What’s overcapacity? … If a rustic manufactures sure items greater than it might probably devour domestically will not be the definition of overcapacity. That is an integral facet of worldwide commerce, particularly beneath globalization.”
The Perils of Customized Diplomacy
It was clear from Xi’s go to to the USA, and second summit with Trump, in September that Beijing was forging a Trump-Xi friendship and searching for a pleasant U.S. administration. The purpose for China was to attempt to guarantee stability within the bilateral relationship with the USA for the remaining interval of Trump’s presidency.
“If we are able to have two extra years of stability, that’s already factor for China,” Shen Weizhong, a former Chinese language Overseas Ministry official, advised Reuters. Considering of the subsequent U.S. administration coming to workplace in 2029, Shen, who now works for a assume tank in Beijing, added, “The Chinese language are very lifelike {that a} new president is perhaps very totally different, however … the extra time we have now, the higher ready we is perhaps in direction of a ultimate showdown on Taiwan or perhaps one other commerce conflict.”
As Shen stated, Chinese language leaders are “lifelike,” and they’ll discover methods to adapt to the altering political setting in the USA. Moreover, like many specialists in the USA, students and analysts in China level out that the Democrats, just like the Republicans, are deeply divided of their China coverage. Already, there are indicators of engagement between Beijing and the Democratic Celebration
As Cory Alpert, who served within the Biden administration, lately wrote in an op-ed that Beijing has begun planning for the Democratic shift in Washington. “Premier Li Qiang hosted a congressional delegation led by Democrat Adam Smith final 12 months. Earlier this 12 months, China’s ambassador to the U.S. met 4 of essentially the most senior Democratic senators,” Alpert identified.
As of late of China-U.S. relations being outlined solely by the Trump-Xi friendship are over. Now Beijing must forge connections with new actors. “That,” Alpert concluded, “is the hazard in constructing the world’s most necessary geopolitical relationship on an assumption that each can management the home politics of their residence nation.”