El Niño, characterised by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in elements of the equatorial Pacific, made its return in June 2026. Observations of sea floor peak from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite tv for pc that month indicated that the 2026 occasion was persevering with to strengthen.
The pure, recurring phenomenon can have widespread results, sometimes bringing wetter circumstances to the U.S. Southwest and drought to international locations within the western Pacific, corresponding to Indonesia and Australia. NOAA declared an El Niño on June 11, after sea floor temperatures within the central and japanese equatorial Pacific measured at the least 0.5 levels Celsius above common for a number of consecutive months.
In the meantime, NASA scientists have been observing a complementary signal of El Niño: areas of elevated sea floor peak. When ocean water warms, it expands in quantity and causes the ocean floor to rise—making the water’s peak a dependable indicator of ocean temperatures. Hotter-than-normal temperatures, therefore greater sea floor heights, in elements of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are related to El Niño.
The map above depicts sea floor peak anomalies throughout the central and japanese Pacific Ocean as noticed on June 8, 2026. Shades of pink point out sea ranges that have been greater than common. Regular sea stage circumstances seem white, and decrease areas are blue.
Information for the map have been acquired by the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite tv for pc—launched in 2020 by NASA and led by ESA (European House Company)—and processed by scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Notice that indicators associated to seasonal cycles and long-term tendencies have been eliminated to spotlight sea stage anomalies related to El Niño and different short-term pure phenomena.
Earlier in spring 2026, the satellite tv for pc began to detect precursor indicators of El Niño as swells of heat water a whole bunch of miles large, referred to as Kelvin waves, moved from the western Pacific to the japanese Pacific. That occurs when commerce winds within the western equatorial Pacific weaken after which briefly reverse to blow from the west. Heat water piles up within the east, deepening the nice and cozy floor layer, reducing the thermocline, and suppressing the upwelling that normally retains waters alongside the Pacific coasts of the Americas cooler.
This buildup of warmth beneath the water’s floor is what sea floor peak observations seize. It goes past floor temperature measurements to point how a lot warmth is saved within the subsurface. That’s necessary as a result of a shallow heat layer may not have a lot affect on local weather and climate, whereas a big reservoir of warmth beneath the floor can matter extra.
Based on JPL sea stage researcher Severine Fournier, deputy venture scientist for Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, circumstances within the western Pacific on June 8 seemed much like these from the identical time in 1997, a 12 months when an exceptionally robust El Niño emerged. Heat circumstances within the japanese Pacific in 2026 have lagged behind, nonetheless, with fewer Kelvin waves constructed up by the identical date.
Nonetheless, extra heat Kelvin waves gave the impression to be approaching the japanese Pacific, that means El Niño was nonetheless strengthening. Whether or not it catches as much as 1997 is determined by ocean exercise within the coming weeks. “For now, it seems to be prefer it’s going to be an enormous one—extra so than I might have mentioned final week—however we nonetheless want extra observations to know what’s going to occur.”
NASA Earth Observatory picture by Lauren Dauphin, utilizing modified Copernicus Sentinel information (2023) processed by the European House Company and additional processed by Josh Willis, Severin Fournier, and Kevin Marlis/NASA/JPL-Caltech. Story by Kathryn Hansen.
- Local weather Prediction Middle/NCEP/NWS (2026, June 11) El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Dialogue. Accessed June 17, 2026.
- NASA Earth Observatory (2025, September 25) El Niño. Accessed June 17, 2026.
- NASA Earth Observatory (2023, June 21) El Niño Returns. Accessed June 17, 2026.
- NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (2026, Might 27) NASA-European Sea Degree Mission Properties in on El Niño. Accessed June 17, 2026.
- NOAA (2026, June 11) El Nino types, anticipated to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters. Accessed June 17, 2026.
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