President Vladimir Putin’s mid-August go to to the Kuril Islands, his first as Russia’s chief, infected a decades-old territorial dispute with Japan and drew worldwide consideration to the 2 nations’ border within the northern Pacific. However over the previous a number of years, Russian forces have been more and more lively far to the south, round Japan’s southwestern-most islands, in an indication of the Russian navy’s attain and its willingness to problem its rivals by itself and alongside China.
The dispute facilities on the southernmost islands within the Kuril chain, which Japan calls its Northern Territories and says the Soviets seized illegally after Tokyo’s give up on the finish of World Conflict II. 1000’s of former Japanese residents of the islands are nonetheless alive, and resolving the dispute is a excessive precedence for Japanese leaders. Russia’s exercise on the islands, particularly its navy buildup, is due to this fact a delicate concern for Tokyo.
Putin’s go to to the island Russia calls Iturup and Japan calls Etorofu on August 13 struck a chord with Tokyo not just for its location but in addition for its timing. Putin first traveled to Sakhalin Island – his first go to there in 13 years – to watch drills by Russia’s Pacific Fleet, a part of a month-long sequence of workouts within the space that Japan protested. His go to additionally got here days after the anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and days earlier than the anniversary of Japan’s World Conflict II give up announcement.
Putin’s Kuril go to coincided with one other Russian motion a lot farther south. The identical day, Japan’s Protection Ministry reported that it had noticed a Russian navy Improved Kilo-class submarine and a search-and-rescue vessel crusing north between the 2 Japanese islands closest to Taiwan, Yonaguni and Iriomote. That was certainly one of no less than 14 transits by Russian vessels round Yonaguni to date in 2026, a substantial improve over current years.
A assessment of releases by the Japanese navy’s Joint Employees from the previous 5 years reveals no such transits in 2021 and simply two in 2022, each between Yonaguni and Iriomote. 2023 noticed one other two transits between Yonaguni and Iriomote, adopted by a soar to 6 transits – 5 between Yonaguni and Iriomote and one between Yonaguni and Taiwan – in 2024. After a dip to 4 Yonaguni-Iriomote transits in 2025, there have been 11 transits between these islands and three between Yonaguni and Taiwan to date this yr, the newest on September 25.
Exercise round Japan’s Southwest Islands is a rising concern for Tokyo. China has elevated its navy operations there for the reason that early 2010s, coaching to sail and fly round and thru that island chain. Chinese language exercise close to Yonaguni and its neighboring islands, generally known as the Sakishima Islands, has additionally picked up lately, an indication of Beijing’s curiosity in familiarizing its forces with the realm round Taiwan. In late 2024, a Chinese language plane service sailed between Yonaguni and Iriomote for the primary time, drawing a proper protest from Tokyo. In response, Japan has elevated its navy presence on the islands, opening bases for radars, electronic-warfare models, and surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles on Yonaguni and Ishigaki, which is simply east of Iriomote.
Some Russian transits round Yonaguni seem like a part of routine voyages to and from the Pacific Fleet’s bases close to Vladivostok. There could also be a sensible cause to make use of that route. “For ships coming south from Vladivostok by the East China Sea, the passage between Yonaguni and Iriomote gives a handy manner into the Philippine Sea with out going farther northeast by the Miyako Strait,” Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow on the Middle for a New American Safety and a retired U.S. Navy officer, stated in an e mail. Shugart stated Russia’s navy can also have a political cause to keep away from the extra direct path to the South China Sea by the Taiwan Strait: “Given Beijing’s sensitivity to overseas naval transits of the Strait, routine Russian use might invite the commentary that even the Russians deal with it as a world waterway.”
However the habits of different Russian vessels round Yonaguni seems extra more likely to be “deliberate signaling towards Japan,” Shugart stated. In some instances, Russian vessels have loitered within the space, maybe to observe Japanese exercise and response measures. In its annual “Protection of Japan” report, Japan’s Protection Ministry singled out an uncommon operation in January this yr, through which a Russian Vishnya-class intelligence-gathering ship was seen “navigating for an prolonged interval” across the Sakishima Islands and Okinawa. Joint Employees releases confirmed that over the course of 12 days the vessel sailed south between Taiwan and Yonaguni and circled the Sakishima Islands earlier than crossing the Miyako Strait and lingering southeast of Okinawa for 3 days. “Notably, this marked the primary confirmed occasion of such a vessel circumnavigating the Sakishima Islands,” the report stated.
The ministry’s report linked current exercise across the Sakishima Islands with a years-long uptick in Russian operations round Japan, “together with workouts and coaching probably meant to confirm the outcomes of navy reforms” and operations farther afield which can be probably meant to maintain the U.S., Japan, and others “in examine.”
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, its navy “has been repeatedly concerned in lively deterrent operations in opposition to america and its Western allies,” Alexey Muraviev, a professor at Edith Cowan College in Australia who research Russian navy technique, stated in an interview late final yr. Common deployments to Southeast Asia, the place Moscow has sought to bolster its navy ties, are part of these operations, Muraviev stated, however in addition they mirror continued considerations in regards to the US and its allies, particularly Japan. “Russia clearly sees Japan as a navy threat – partially due to its alignment with america by safety and protection ties, partially due to [the] unresolved territorial dispute,” Muraviev stated.
Russia’s exercise round Japan additionally reveals its deepening navy ties with China, which has turn out to be a extra vital companion amid Moscow’s worldwide isolation following its invasion of Ukraine. Over the previous a number of years, Sino-Russian bomber and naval patrols have integrated a wider vary of ships and plane, together with diesel-electric submarines and nuclear-capable bombers, and traveled farther, typically circling the Japanese archipelago. Throughout their most up-to-date naval patrol, in July, their ships transited east by the Miyako Strait, headed north alongside Japan’s east coast, after which sailed west by the Vries Strait, which separates the Kuril Islands that Japan claims from the remainder of the chain. The route demonstrated the 2 navies’ growing potential to function by “strategic waterways,” Chinese language specialists advised state media.
Russia has additionally echoed China’s criticism of what it calls Japan’s “militarism,” a line of assault that Beijing began pushing late final yr, probably in an try and stoke backlash to Japan’s rising navy investments and regional safety position. Russian officers returned to that speaking level within the weeks following Putin’s go to to the Kuril Islands, lashing out at Japan for internet hosting a navy train with the U.S. round Hokkaido, the Japanese major island closest to the Kurils, and objecting to its proximity to Russian territory. “The Japanese aspect was firmly knowledgeable that provocative navy exercise close to our nation’s far jap borders is categorically unacceptable,” Russian International Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated on September 1.