Each March, thousands and thousands of individuals confidently fill out their NCAA event brackets armed with superior stats, historic tendencies and powerful opinions about groups they’ve watched all season.
I am unable to try this. I am not a school basketball knowledgeable. I comply with the NBA.
Ask me about commerce rumors or whether or not the Lakers ought to blow up the roster and I am going to speak your ear off. Ask me a few potential second-round matchup between a No. 4 seed from the Massive Ten and a random dark-horse staff, and I am nowhere.
Final yr, as a substitute of pretending in any other case, I attempted one thing totally different: I requested ChatGPT to assist me fill out my March Insanity bracket. The thought was easy. If thousands and thousands of individuals have been already utilizing AI instruments to summarize analysis, analyze knowledge and make on a regular basis choices, why not see if it may assist somebody like me, an informal faculty basketball observer, make smarter picks throughout probably the most chaotic event in all of sports activities?
And the outcomes have been fairly stunning. ChatGPT hit on upsets and the collapse of favorites, and I saved climbing the leaderboard in my pool. By the point the Remaining 4 rolled round, I used to be instantly in hanging distance of profitable the entire thing.
In the end, I did not win. However I got here shut sufficient that it did not really feel like the unique joke experiment I supposed, and it as a substitute felt like one thing price testing once more.
So yeah, this yr, I am operating it again.
The 2026 NCAA event bracket was revealed on Choice Sunday, so I am as soon as once more turning to ChatGPT to assist construct my bracket from scratch. I nonetheless will not faux to know each roster or harm report. However that is a part of the experiment. Can AI assist shut the hole for somebody who largely watches NBA video games and simply desires a bracket that will not implode within the first couple of rounds?
Earlier than I present you this yr’s picks, let’s take a look at how the AI truly made its choices.
What AI will get proper (and improper) about March Insanity
One factor AI shortly understands about March Insanity is that predicting it completely is principally unimaginable. Even for those who knew the precise likelihood of each recreation final result, the probabilities of selecting an ideal bracket are astronomically small, 1 in 120.2 billion, and that is if ball. You are way more prone to be attacked by a shark.
That randomness of this event is precisely why it is so enjoyable and why workplace swimming pools exist within the first place.
What ChatGPT tends to get proper is construction. It understands the historic patterns of the event. Greater seeds often advance, sure midseeds are frequent upset candidates, and selecting too many underdogs early is often a mistake.
The place AI struggles is similar place most people do: the unpredictable chaos that defines March Insanity. Sizzling capturing nights, accidents, teaching changes and momentum swings all play an element.
However that is additionally why the experiment is fascinating to me. If AI can construct a bracket that survives the early rounds and avoids apparent errors, it would do higher than the typical bracket full of random guesses in most swimming pools.
An OpenAI spokesperson reached out to me about my story and provided this assertion: “ChatGPT generally is a enjoyable and useful gizmo for anybody filling out their brackets this yr. Whether or not you comply with the game intently or simply need slightly assist making your picks, it is free to make use of and might break down staff stats, examine matchups, and enable you assume by totally different approaches relying on the way you wish to play it.”
How I requested ChatGPT to select my bracket
My experiment lat yr labored finest after I did not merely ask ChatGPT: “Who will win March Insanity?” As an alternative, I gave the AI a structured immediate that attempted to imitate how analysts consider related event matchups. The aim is not perfection however as a substitute constructing a bracket that balances favorites with just a few practical upsets. The type of bracket which may truly win a pool.
The immediate I made a decision on for this yr:
“You might be serving to me fill out a March Insanity bracket. Use historic event tendencies, staff seeding and common basketball analytics to counsel winners for every matchup. Keep away from unrealistic brackets with too many early upsets, however embody just a few believable ones, together with doable dark-horse and Cinderella groups. The aim is to construct a bracket that would realistically win a pool. Use this as a information: https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket”
Notice:Â I used ChatGPT 5.4 Considering.
You may modify the immediate relying on how dangerous you need the bracket to be. When you’re in a big pool with 1000’s of individuals, it is smart to inform ChatGPT to be extra aggressive with upset picks in an effort to stand out. In a smaller pool, a extra conservative technique, leaning towards increased seeds and avoiding early-round chaos, usually offers you a greater probability of staying aggressive.
Beneath is the total 2026 NCAA males’s event bracket it created for me, together with the First 4, projected favorites, a handful of upsets and a possible dark-horse run. I am going to observe whether or not or not ChatGPT accurately predicts the winners week by week.
Replace: Presently, by the Spherical of 32, ChatGPT is 42 of 52.
First 4
(11) Texas over (11) NC State
(16) Howard over (16) UMBC
(11) SMUÂ over (11) Miami (OH)
(16) Lehigh over (16) Prairie View
East Area
Spherical of 64
(1) Duke over (16) Siena
(9) TCUÂ over (8) Ohio State
(5) St. John’s over (12) Northern Iowa
(4) Kansas over (13) California Baptist
(6) Louisville over (11) South Florida
(3) Michigan State over (14) North Dakota State
(7) UCLAÂ over (10) UCF
(2) UConn over (15) Furman
Spherical of 32
(1) Duke over (9) TCU
(5) St. John’s over (4) Kansas
(3) Michigan State over (6) Louisville
(2) UConn over (7) UCLA
Candy 16
(1) Duke over (5) St. John’s
(2) UConn over (3) Michigan State
Elite Eight
(1) Duke over (2) UConn
West Area
Spherical of 64
(1) Arizona over (16) LIU
(9) Utah State over (8) Villanova
(5) Wisconsin over (12) Excessive Level
(4) Arkansas over (13) Hawaii
(6) BYUÂ over (11) Texas
(3) Gonzaga over (14) Kennesaw State
(7) Miami (FL)Â over (10) Missouri
(2) Purdue over (15) Queens
Spherical of 32
(1) Arizona over (9) Utah State
(4) Arkansas over (5) Wisconsin
(3) Gonzaga over (6) BYU
(2) Purdue over (7) Miami (FL)
Candy 16
(1) Arizona over (4) Arkansas
(2) Purdue over (3) Gonzaga
Elite Eight
(1) Arizona over (2) Purdue
South AreaÂ
Spherical of 64
(1) Florida over (16) Lehigh
(8) Clemson over (9) Iowa
(5) Vanderbilt over (12) McNeese
(4) Nebraska over (13) Troy
(6) North Carolina over (11) VCU
(3) Illinois over (14) Penn
(7) Saint Mary’s over (10) Texas A&M
(2) Houston over (15) Idaho
Spherical of 32
(1) Florida over (8) Clemson
(4) Nebraska over (5) Vanderbilt
(3) Illinois over (6) North Carolina
(2) Houston over (7) Saint Mary’s
Candy 16
(1) Florida over (4) Nebraska
(2) Houston over (3) Illinois
Elite Eight
(1) Florida over (2) Houston
Midwest Area
Spherical of 64
(1) Michigan over (16) Howard
(8) Georgia over (9) Saint Louis
(5) Texas Tech over (12) Akron
(4) Alabama over (13) Hofstra
(6) Tennessee over (11) SMU
(3) Virginia over (14) Wright State
(10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky
(2) Iowa State over (15) Tennessee State
Spherical of 32
(1) Michigan over (8) Georgia
(4) Alabama over (5) Texas Tech
(3) Virginia over (6) Tennessee
(2) Iowa State over (10) Santa Clara
Candy 16
(1) Michigan over (4) Alabama
(2) Iowa State over (3) Virginia
Elite Eight
(1) Michigan over (2) Iowa State
Remaining 4
(1) Duke over (1) Florida
(1) Arizona over (1) Michigan
Nationwide Championship
(1) Duke over (1) Arizona
Total, a fairly protected and simple bracket, with 4 regional No. 1 seeds within the Remaining 4, and Duke, the present favorites, to win all of it.
Enlarge Picture
That is some data ChatGPT offered about its upset picks.
This is the schedule for the 2026 NCAA males’s basketball event:
- First 4: March 17-18
- First spherical: March 19-20
- Second spherical: March 21-22
- Candy 16: March 26-27
- Elite Eight: March 28-29
- Remaining 4: April 4
- NCAA championship recreation: April 6
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